The first 15 days of July have raised the heat and friction of the US election to a new high with direct violence taking place against former president Trump. This came after an intense couple of weeks of public discussion on President Biden's withdrawal from the current elections.
The media whether mainstream or alternative have been busy brining in various opinions on both events. But there has been an instance activity in Polls and Betting industry.
Since the discussion of Biden's withdrawal the olds of him re-elected fell from 35% to 11%. Whereas the odds of Trump getting re-elected rose from 38% to 55%. Post-weekend incidents these odds have increased to a new high of 65%. Given that the incident took place in Pennsylvania, which is one of six swing states. The polls also reached a new high in favour of Trump being re-elected.
Last week even the Federal Reserve received a positive surprise as CPI fell to a negative monthly change along with a higher unemployment rate. This resulted in the Citi Economic Surprise Index reaching a low of -47.5 last witnessed around May 2022 when the rate hike began. Will this be enough for rate cuts to start in September or this index starts to reverse?
These events similar to such events have the risk of rising especially nearer the elections. This puts an upside risk to volatility that has been stable for now. A rise in VIX will push investors to other assets such as the Dollar or Gold for at least a few months till we are past the events.
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