As this year comes near an end, central banks are closing the year by giving mixed commentary for the year ahead. This week is crucial as the US Fed and Bank of Japan meet to decide on rates. The decision from the Fed is much expected to be a 25 bps cut, but the focus would be on hints of the road ahead. The meeting of the BoJ is crucial as they discuss whether to go for a rate hike or not.
As the end of the year approaches, the data released are more concerning as they hunt for stagflation for next year. Inflation reduction progress is paused, and some places are even witnessing a reversal. Growth has peaked in many, but with the support of extra demand in anticipation of tariff hikes next year, the data seems better for now.
If these trends firm up and accelerate next year, central banks will face tough choices. If they choose to pause, growth risk increases, and if they choose to cut further, there is inflation risk that impacts the lower and middle-income populations.
Certain countries are looking towards fiscal stimulus to provide support in unique times. China is planning higher support next year to boost local demand. Even Japan is planning a stimulus, to lower the inflation impact and keep demand stable.
These approaches are becoming more complicated with time and provide more uncertainty than certainty for next year. Given this rally in stocks and bonds, any shock or surprise from data or central banks can lead to a quick and large correction.
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